FX Tactical Ideas: Long EUR-CHF Near Year-to-Date Lows
Dovish SNB could alter CHF trajectory
Treasury & Markets, Terence Wu6 Sep 2024
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash
Read More

** This is a product of Sales and not Research **

CHF outperformance in the Jul-Aug period should reverse as focus shifts to a dovish SNB.      

  • Since Jul, the CHF has gained ground against all G-10 counterparts, save for the JPY. We see this bout of outsized CHF strength as a byproduct of JPY’s gains amid the unwinding of the JPY carry trade. Short-term correlations between the USD-CHF and USD-JPY since Jun 2023 averaged around 0.50, but the relationship tightened towards 0.60 – 0.80 in Jul-Aug.
  • Going forward, we expect the JPY’s importance as a CHF driver to fade. The USD-JPY’s downside impetus has been arrested ahead of the major 140.00 psychological level. We are also heading into the next major risk event for the CHF – the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) policy decision on 26 Sep. We expect market expectations around the SNB’s policy decision and forward guidance to take over as the main CHF driver.
  • After the strong run in Jul-Aug, various trade-weighted indices suggest that the CHF has now risen back to Jan-Feb levels, before the surprise SNB rate cut in Mar. Thus, recent CHF strength should lead to some SNB discomfort.
  • The SNB’s policy focus has shifted from inflation-fighting to be more growth-supporting this year. The Swiss headline inflation for Aug (released 03 Sep) stood at 1.1% y/y, lower than the estimate of 1.2% y/y and well within the 2.0% target. That a strong CHF is no longer required as an inflation-fighting tool is a view that still stands. In fact, the recent CHF strength has led to the Swiss manufacturing industry to lobby for the SNB actions to contain future appreciation. Clearly, CHF gains have set back the SNB’s intent to support growth.   

Figure 1: Headline and core inflation in Switzerland are both comfortably below the 2.0% target 

Source: Bloomberg, DBS


Download the PDF to read the full report.

Topic

Note: All views expressed are current as at the stated date of publication

DISCLAIMERS AND IMPORTANT NOTES

This information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd. (“DBS Bank”) and is for information only. This publication is intended for DBS Bank and its subsidiaries or affiliates (collectively “DBS”) and clients to whom it has been delivered and may not be reproduced, transmitted or communicated to any other person without the prior written permission of DBS Bank. 

This publication is not and does not constitute or form part of any offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to you to subscribe to or to enter into any transaction as described, nor is it calculated to invite or permit the making of offers to the public to subscribe to or enter into any transaction for cash or other consideration and should not be viewed as such.

The information herein may be incomplete or condensed and it may not include a number of terms and provisions nor does it identify or define all or any of the risks associated to any actual transaction. Any terms, conditions and opinions contained herein may have been obtained from various sources and neither DBS nor any of their respective directors or employees (collectively the “DBS Group”) make any warranty, expressed or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness and thus assume no responsibility of it. The information herein may be subject to further revision, verification and updating and DBS Group undertakes no responsibility thereof.

All figures and amounts stated are for illustration purposes only and shall not bind DBS Group. DBS Group does not act as an adviser and assumes no fiduciary responsibility or liability for any consequences, financial or otherwise, arising from any arrangement or entrance into any transaction in reliance on the information contained herein.   The information herein does not have regard to the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person. In order to build your own independent analysis of any transaction and its consequences, you should consult your own independent financial, accounting, tax, legal or other competent professional advisors as you deem appropriate to ensure that any assessment you make is suitable for you in light of your own financial, accounting, tax, and legal constraints and objectives without relying in any way on DBS Group or any position which DBS Group might have expressed in this document or orally to you in the discussion.

Companies within the DBS Group or the directors or employees of the DBS Group or persons/entities connected to them may have positions in and may affect transactions in the underlying product(s) mentioned. Companies within the DBS Group may have alliances or other contractual agreements with the provider(s) of the underlying product(s) to market or sell its product(s). Where companies within the DBS Group are the product provider, such company may be receiving fees from the investors. In addition, companies within the DBS Group may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services to the companies or affiliates mentioned herein.

This publication may include quotation, comments or analysis. Any such quotation, comments or analysis have been prepared on assumptions and parameters that reflect our good faith, judgement or selection and therefore no warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or reasonableness. All information, estimates, forecasts and opinions included in this document or orally to you in the discussion constitute our judgement as of the date indicated and may be subject to change without notice. Changes in market conditions or in any assumptions may have material impact on any estimates or opinion stated.

Prices and availability of financial instruments are subject to change without notice. Any information relating to past performance, or any future forecast based on past performance or other assumptions, is not necessarily a reliable indicator of future results. Future results may not meet our/ your expectations due to a variety of economic, market and other factors.

This publication has not been reviewed or authorised by any regulatory authority in Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai International Financial Centre, United Kingdom or elsewhere. There is no planned schedule or frequency for updating research publication relating to any issuer.

If this publication has been distributed by electronic transmission, such as e-mail, then such transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free as information could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, arrive late or incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of the Information, which may arise as a result of electronic transmission. If verification is required, please request for a hard-copy version.

The investment product(s) mentioned herein is/are not the only product(s) that is/are aligned with the views stated in the research report(s) and may not be the most preferred or suitable product for you. There are other investment product(s) available in the market which may better suit your investment profile, objectives and financial situation.

This publication is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Country Specific Disclaimer

This publication is distributed by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) ("DBS") which is an Exempt Financial Adviser as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (the "MAS").

This publication is provided to you as an “Accredited Investor” (defined under the Securities and Futures Act of Singapore and the Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018) or an “Institutional Investor” (defined under the Securities and Futures Act of Singapore and the Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018) for your private use only and may not be passed on or disclosed to any person nor copied or reproduced in any manner.