Fixed Income Weekly | CPI meets expectations, but inflation concerns linger
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Chief Investment Office14 Nov 2024
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FOCUS OF THE WEEK

Wednesday’s CPI release came out in line with consensus expectations (headline: 0.2% m/m, core: 0.3% m/m), offering some relief for front-end US Treasuries. We are not convinced that the report will quell longer-term inflation worries. Notably, core services ex housing (super core) inflation has been running above 0.3% m/m for three consecutive months suggesting there is some stickiness in prices. In any case, the disinflation in the shelter component also appears to have largely stalled. The only constraint on higher prices would be contained goods inflation thus far. Accordingly, it may be difficult for US CPI to drop much below 2.5% on a sustainable basis. Moreover, against the backdrop of likely tariffs, tax cuts, and more stringent immigration rules, the outlook for inflation remains skewed to the upside over the medium-term. Longer-term USD rates (10Y and 30Y) would trade relatively buoyant assuming this narrative is in play.

The Fed does get one more set of NFP and CPI prints in early December before the next FOMC meeting (outcome due 19 December 3am SGT). Assuming that data does not materially change, the Fed will deliver one final cut for the year, taking the Fed Funds rate to 4.5%. The Fed Funds rate would still be in restrictive territory at that point even if the neutral rate is not as low as the 2.9% indicated in September’s dotplot. Moreover, the Fed is unlikely to pre-empt what Trump would do before those measures are officially announced. Accordingly, the earliest that the Fed will react to Trump’s new policies will likely be at the March FOMC meeting. This suggests that the Fed will likely keep a dovish stance in December, while caveating that the inflation outlook is highly uncertain. Short-term USD rates have already shifted hawkish, pricing in a terminal rate of around 4.0% by end-2025.

Figure 1: Changes in Spreads

Source: Bloomberg, DBS. Data as at 14 Nov 2024

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Note: All views expressed are current as at the stated date of publication

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