Estee Lauder Companies
The latest investment analysis on Estee Lauder Companies
Group Research - Equities26 Aug 2024
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Company Overview
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. manufacturers, markets and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products. The Company's merchandises are sold in approximately 150 countries and territories under various renowned brands, including Estee Lauder, Aramis, Clinique, Lab Series, Origins, M.A.C, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Aveda, Jo Malone London, Bumble and bumble, Darphin, Smashbox, Le Labo, Editions de Parfums Frederic Malle, GLAMGLOW, Kilian Paris, Too Faced, Dr.Jart+, DECIEM and The Ordinary. It also offers fragrances, cosmetics and/or related products under the brands of Tom Ford, Dr. Andrew Weil, and AERIN.


Investment Overview
Sales outlook remains cloudy, particularly in Mainland China. EL's sales performance in fiscal year 2025 is expected to remain weak, impacted by the slower-than-expected recovery of the overall prestige beauty market in Mainland China and the Asia travel retail business. In addition, subdued demand in North America, driven by an intensely competitive environment and a slowdown in brick-and-mortar channels, is further dampening the outlook.

Sales declines in key markets may hinder the company’s Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP) in restoring profitability. EL’s ongoing PRGP and restructuring program are designed to support profitability restoration in fiscal years 2025 and 2026. This effort is projected to deliver incremental operating profits of USD1.1-1.4bn, with more than 50% of these savings expected to be realised in fiscal year 2025 and the remainder in 2026. The PRGP initiatives focus on: (i) accelerating margin expansion through gross margin recovery and additional expense leverage; (ii) fueling growth with targeted investments in consumer-facing activities; and (iii) enhancing agility and execution speed. However, we anticipate that sales declines in key markets will reduce the benefits of the PRGP and slow down operating margin expansion for fiscal year 2025.

EL's innovation pipeline, investments in digital capabilities, improved distribution channel mix, and enhanced supply chain are set to help regain market share and drive long-term growth. The company is intensifying its innovation efforts by launching new products across various categories to better meet local consumer needs. Moreover, EL is increasing investments in digital capabilities and strengthening its social media presence to ensure more successful product launches and effectively engage younger consumers. EL is also shifting its distribution channel mix from traditional department stores to specialty retailers and online platforms, particularly in the U.S., to address market share losses. Furthermore, the establishment of a new manufacturing plant in Japan and an R&D center in China is expected to reduce lead times for Asian retailers, minimise obsolescence and stockouts, and enhance agility in responding to evolving consumer trends and demands. These efforts are anticipated to support sales recovery across markets and categories, particularly if global prestige beauty growth accelerates in fiscal 2026.

Sales outlook remains subdued in FY25F; maintain HOLD call with a TP of USD102. We maintain our HOLD rating for EL due to its weak sales outlook for fiscal year 2025, driven by slow demand recovery in Mainland China, Asia travel retail, and North America. However, the company remains committed to implementing its strategy reset, including the PRGP, to achieve sustainable, long-term organic sales growth and rebuild operating profitability by fiscal year 2026. Our target price of USD102 is based on a 31x PE for the fiscal year ending June 2025, or about -1 standard deviation of its five-year historical mean PE, reflecting its slow recovery outlook and aligning with global beauty peers.


Risks
Key downside risks include prolonged weakness in China's growth trajectory, extended headwinds from Asia travel retail, persistent market share erosion in key markets, deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, escalating competition, and adverse foreign exchange fluctuations.

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