India rates: View on growth slowdown aligns, rupee volatility to rise
Growth slowdown.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao8 Jan 2025
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Statistics agency projected the first advance real growth estimate for FY25 at 6.4% yoy, aligning with the slowdown signaled by the revised RBI’s projection at 6.6% (from 7% earlier) and our forecast at 6.3% (2025 outlook). This compares with 8.2% in FY24. With 1H growth at 6.0%, second half is expected to recover to 6.7% from a pick-up in government spending, better farm output, rural demand, and resilience in service sector output. There are downside risks to the projected 2H momentum. Nominal GDP for FY25 is estimated at 9.7% yoy, slower than 10.5% assumed in the Budget. We don’t expect this miss to endanger the FY25 fiscal target due to a likely undershoot in total spending and better revenue growth. Nonetheless, a third consecutive year of sub-10% nominal growth poses risks to the debt sustainability path.

On markets, rupee traders have been keen to assess the new RBI Governor’s view on the currency since he assumed office last month. Recent INR price action points to a higher tolerance for a weaker exchange rate, demonstrated in the -2.1% fall in the INR vs USD in 4Q24, compared to nearly flat 1Q-3Q. The weakening bias continues into the new year, with overvaluation of the broad real effective exchange rate (REER) also weighing on exchange rate (Nov REER was at a record high). Strong intervention presence since 4Q24 has led to a drain in domestic liquidity, pushing the balance to a deficit (accentuated by seasonal drivers), notwithstanding the 50bp cut in the cash reserve ratio as well as bond purchases by the RBI. This position had also become unsustainable as a rapid appreciation in the dollar magnified the misalignment, increasing the need to ease grip on the rupee. The 3M implied vol has ticked up after an extended period of staying low, also mirrored in higher 1Y implied forward yields. In early-Jan, banks had reportedly sought the central bank’s hand to inject liquidity by long-term FX swaps to tame FX financing costs.

We had highlighted the risk that USDINR could head towards 86.0 on account of dollar strength as well as pressure on capital and investment flows in the annual outlook. The rupee’s adjustment phase is likely to persist in light of a challenging outlook for flows, even as bond interests stand to benefit from inclusion into two more global fixed income benchmarks this year. Juxtaposing less favourable global catalysts (slippery yuan included) and domestic drivers, we expect the rupee to lose ground this quarter, with revised DBS forecasts due later this week.


Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



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