Examining the three factors that drove the USD’s recent correction
DXY may start consolidating on three factors.
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee14 Feb 2025
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The DXY Index depreciated by 0.8% to 107, testing the upper boundary of its previous two-year range. The greenback’s pullback from its mid-January peak has been attributed to US President Donald Trump’s slow rollout of tariffs and the subsequent decline in the US Treasury 10Y yield down towards 4%. Additionally, Trump’s unexpected move to engage his Russian counterpart in efforts to end the war in Ukraine added further pressure on the USD. Barring further surprises, there are reasons for the DXY to consolidate around present levels. 



First, the US Treasury 10Y bond yield is approaching 4.50% or the ceiling of the Fed Funds Rate range(4.25-4.50%). Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be looking for PCE inflation on February 28 to mirror the upside surprises in PPI and CPI inflation. Yesterday, PPI inflation was faster than expected at 0.4% in January vs. the 0.3% consensus. December was also revised to 0.5% from 0.2% previously. During his semi-annual congressional testimonies this week, Powell also told US lawmakers that a sharp increase in M2 money supply might result in some inflation. 



Second, Trump’s tariffs are still coming. The 10% tariff on Chinese imports proceeded as scheduled on February 4. Canada and Mexico are still at risk of 25% tariffs on their exports to the US after the one-month reprieve granted on February 3 expires. Given the need for additional revenue to fund the extension of tax cuts expiring this year, Trump will require more than tougher border measures to curb drug trafficking and illegal immigration to rescind the tariff threat. On Monday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports, effective March 12. Yesterday, Trump directed the Trade Representative and Commerce Secretary to propose reciprocal tariffs on each of America’s trading partners to rebalance bilateral trade deficits, which Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick said should be ready by April 1. In signing this directive, Trump also made good on his strong intent to impose tariffs on the EU. 

Third, reality will likely set in regarding the Trump administration’s recent initiative to end the war in Ukraine. His unexpected move to directly engage Russian Vladimir Putin has elicited strong reactions and raised significant concerns. Ukraine and European allies fear their exclusion from the negotiations could result in possible concessions favouring Russia and weakening NATO’s collective security framework. Trump’s suggestion for Russia to be readmitted into the G7 is unlikely to be well received by them either.


Quote of the Day
“If I had a flower for every time I thought of you, I could walk through my garden forever.”
     Alfred Lord Tennyson

February 14 in history
The Australian dollar was decimalized in 1966, replacing the Australian pound.
 





Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 

 
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