In continuation with measures to ease banking system liquidity, the RBI announced two more tranches of open market operations, and another foreign currency swap to be conducted this month. Under the OMOs, bond purchases worth INR 1trn will be carried out in two parts – 12 and 18 March, followed up by buy/sell USD/INR currency swap auction worth $10bn for 36 months on 24 March. The liquidity balance had been in deficit since December 2024, registering the widest gulf in January, and thereafter moderated to below INR 2trn last month, and further to ~INR300bn this week.
A strong move to boost liquidity – latest measures are expected to lift core liquidity to a surplus – suggest that the overall policy stance is clearly accommodative, with an eye on facilitating policy transmission. These steps are pre-emptive ahead of a seasonal squeeze in March, being a fiscal year end, besides other contributing factors including FX market intervention, tax outflows, volatility in capital flows and currency in circulation. At a more structural level, the move for the centre to disburse funds to states and other agencies at the time of need rather than in advance has also added to the tightness. Concerted action, which includes tranches of OMOs, VRR auctions and FX swaps besides a CRR reduction in December, have added more than INR 4.0trn to the domestic banking system yet far.
A let-up in the global dollar rally saw the rupee post its single highest appreciation since February yesterday, closing below 87.0, de facto lowering intervention pressure in the near-term. Looking ahead, a strong dividend transfer from the RBI in May will also provide a more durable liquidity injection, keeping the overall balance well in surplus. The FY26 Budget had projected INR 2.56trn in dividend income from the central banks and public sector institutions. The combination of ample liquidity support, reduction in rates, low energy prices and moderating inflation ease conditions for growth this year, while global uncertainties loom large.
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