Indonesia rates: BI expected to keep policy sails steady
Watching for a signal to cut rates in 4Q24.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao17 Jul 2024
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Bank Indonesia is expected to keep rates on hold at today’s rate meeting. Moderating inflation of volatile items, led by food, is helping the disinflationary process, with headline CPI print slipping to the mid-point of the target range in June. While the disinflationary path is conducive for policy, the currency remains exposed to bouts of dollar strength and lingering uncertainty over the domestic fiscal path. At the June review and subsequent public remarks, Governor Warjiyo had suggested that the window to lower rates might open in 4Q24. We are mindful that the window for cuts hinges on the prevailing FX risks this quarter and the next. The incoming government’s fiscal bent and key cabinet appointees, especially for the Finance portfolio, will also be matters of great interest.

Meanwhile, passage of the seasonally weak 2Q, supportive comments from the incumbent Finance Minister on the domestic fiscal path, and softer US data have provided a breather to the IDR this month. USDIDR hovered around 16150-16250 at the start of this week, off June highs, but unable to break below following the latest trade numbers which pointed to a narrower trade surplus and a return of dollar strength. June trade balance registered a $2.39bn surplus, on the back of a modest 1.2% yoy increase in exports, while imports rose 7.6%. In first half of 2024, the goods surplus has narrowed to $2.6bn from $3.3bn same time last year, which reflects a 11% drop in the non-oil & gas trade surplus in 1H24 and 1H23 along with a 15% jump in the oil & gas deficit. Two-way forces have impacted trade numbers: price effects from softer commodities imparting a negative impulse on exports, alongside a weaker currency adding to the import bill. Considering these developments, the central bank is expected to keep the policy sails steady when they meet later today, while continuing with its FX smoothening operations.

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]
 


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