The DXY Index may consolidate following a two-day rebound near the top end of its three-week range (100.5 and 101.9). The US Treasury 2Y yield rose by 2.3 bps to 3.67% after four consecutive sessions of declines. Overnight, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite indices each gained 1.2%, stabilizing after their worst weekly sell-off this year. The futures market believes that the Fed needs to act more forcefully with a 50 bps cut at next week’s FOMC meeting to counter US recession fears tied to a cooling labour market.
However, last Friday’s US jobs report was mixed, and tomorrow’s US CPI data should support a normal 25 bps cut instead. Consensus expects CPI and core inflation to repeat July’s 0.2% MoM rise in August, keeping year-on-year inflation above the 2% target. The New York Fed reported that 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations held steady in August at 3% and 2.8%, respectively, though 3-year expectations ticked up to 2.5% from 2.3% in July.
With no significant data releases today, markets will likely remain on the sidelines ahead of the second US Presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump (September 11 at 9 am Singapore time). Polls indicate a tight race for the US Presidential elections on November 5. Harris has reinvigorated the Democratic campaign following President Joe Biden’s exit after a poor first debate. To maintain the momentum, Harris needs to win over undecided voters unfamiliar with her in the critical swing states to stay in the White House. The second debate will be more about Harris getting these voters to believe in her by defining her policies and character instead of convincing them of Trump’s poor credentials.
Quote of the day
”You have only one way to convince others, listen to them.”
George Washington
September 10 in history
In 2022, King Charles III was officially proclaimed Britain’s monarch.
The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). This report is intended for “Accredited Investors” and “Institutional Investors” (defined under the Financial Advisers Act and Securities and Futures Act of Singapore, and their subsidiary legislation), as well as “Professional Investors” (defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong) only. It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.
This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.
DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.
DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability. 13th Floor One Island East, 18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong SAR
Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply. The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.