Monday continued the momentum of “Trump Trade 2.0” though several markets are approaching critical levels. The DXY Index appreciated from 103.4 to 105.5 since the November 5 US election, nearing a full retracement of its 3Q decline from 106.1. EUR/USD dropped below 1.07, closing 0.6% lower at 1.0650 overnight, but is near the year’s low of 1.06 reached in mid-April. USD/CAD struggled to break above 1.3950 this month, with similar resistance for USD/JPY at 154. The S&P 500 Index rallied 5% after the election, hitting an all-time high at the psychological 6000 level. Bitcoin’s spectacular post-election surge from sub-70k is near a test – a trendline resistance level slightly above 90k. In contrast, gold fell 4.4% this month, after a four-month rally, with profit-taking fuelled by concerns that Trump’s incoming policies could reverse the Fed’s easing cycle.
Many Fed officials will speak this week, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams on Thursday. Suppose tomorrow’s October CPI inflation stays unchanged as expected, at 0.2% MoM and 0.3% for headline and core inflation, respectively, Fed officials should keep the door open for a third rate cut in December. Like Powell, most officials will not be factoring in President-elect Donald Trump’s policy intentions and await the actual policy plans after his inauguration on January 20, 2025. For now, the Fed should stick with September’s plan to lessen monetary policy restriction. US bond markets return from Veteran Day’s holiday to subdued WTI crude oil prices below USD70/barrel. The US 10Y bond yield eased last Thursday-Friday to 4.30% on the Fed’s second cut, following a spike to 4.43% on Trump winning the electoral college on November 6.
Quote of the Day
“I can’t change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach the destination.”
Jimmy Dean
November 12 in history
US symbolically signed in 1998 the Kyoto Protocol, which was never ratified.
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