SGD Rates: Lack of SGS supply & lack of twin easing
10Y issuance in focus.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow12 Nov 2024
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SGD interest rates / SGS yields have risen in tandem with their USD counterparts as the market comes to term with firm US data and considerable upside risks to US growth / inflation as Trump returns as President. That said, there are relative value considerations amidst the sizable swings in rate levels. First, the lack of SGS supply for the rest of the year has helped to cushion SGSs even as USTs sold off. Since September 18 (when the Fed cut by 50bps), 10Y SGS rose by a more muted 41bps compared to 60bps for 10Y USTs. Similarly, SGS-swap spreads (yield les SORA) are a lot less inverted compared to UST-swap (yield less SOFR). The upshot is that SGSs are trading rich (yields are relatively low) compared to SORA OISs and to USTs. This could change once the SGS calendar for 2025 gets announced. For the long end, the focus will be on the number of 10Y issuances (one or two for the year) and the issuance split for the ultra-long SGS infra bonds (a reopen for the 30Y or two reopens – 30Y and 50Y). 

Second, the twin easing play (Fed cuts and MAS easing) has been put on hold. Thus far, the Fed has cut by 75bps but the MAS has not shifted its SGDNEER stance. We would typically expect that Fed easing would be accompanied by MAS easing. However, that has not played out yet. The Fed may not ease as much as anticipated if the US economy stays firm. Similarly, if Singapore’s inflation stays sticky, any flattening of the SGDNEER band may only take place well into 2025. Accordingly, the 5Y SOFR-SORA spread has rewidened back to 121bps (close to the wides seen in this cycle), levels more consistent with no-landing. Technically, these levels are attractive to establish pay SGD, rec USD positions. However, there is no immediate catalyst on the horizon that could trigger this trade to perform just yet.
 

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 


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