India rates: October inflation rules out near-term cuts
Fastest inflation in over a year.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao13 Nov 2024
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India’s October inflation rose 6.2% yoy, registering the fastest pace of rise in over a year and up from 5.5% in September (we discussed this risk here and here). The reading was not only above the 4% mid-point but also the target range of 2-6%. Bouts of strong unseasonal rains had impacted food perishables’ (vegetables up 42% yoy), besides passthrough impact of duty hikes on oilseeds and sticky cereals. Food (and beverages) inflation rose 9.7% yoy, firmest since mid-2023. While fuel decelerated, core inflation (ex-food, fuel) ticked up to 3.7% on the back of gold and housing. Incoming data for November points to some moderation in vegetables, which would help soften the headline to 5.5-5.7% yoy.

A sharp rise in October and above 5% print in November will keep 3QFY25 (4Q24) inflation at mid-5%, above the official forecast of 4.8% yoy, necessitating an upward revision in official FY25 inflation projection at the next rate review. Firm inflation, hawkish speak from the central bank and heightened global volatility confirm that rate cuts are off the table in December. October’s print, nonetheless, marks a peak in this cycle, with food costs to moderate as kharif supplies return to the market. The next data of interest will be the Jul-Sep24 growth numbers due end-month, which is expected to reflect the recent slowdown in high frequency activity indicators. Financial market stability will also be key for the authorities. A dollar rally post the US elections has pushed the rupee to a record low this week. Equity markets have witnessed strong foreign portfolio outflows on high valuation concerns, softening corporate earnings and a portfolio rebalancing push. Domestic interests, however, have been more resilient with a 22% MoM jump in inflows into equity mutual funds in October, also benefiting from a record high SIP contributions in the month. We see a window for rate cuts in February contingent on market stability, cool off in inflation and more evidence of a cyclical slowdown.


Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



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