USD Rates: Inflation risks skewed to the upside?
Sticky inflation?
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow13 Nov 2024
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US inflation has been on a general downtrend over the past two years, with YoY CPI down to 2.4% in September. While not quite at the 2% Fed target, these levels are low enough to prompt the Fed to start easing. Going forward, we reckon that inflation risks may be skewed to the upside and we will get another set of readings on Wednesday. To be sure, supply side risks (driven by the pandemic) have largely receded, and goods prices are falling. Moreover, despite conflict in the Middle East, oil prices have been very well behaved with Brent crude hovering just above USD 70/bbl. However, these data points are in the rear-view mirror and for rates, it is the inflation outlook that matters. 

We are growing more concerned about sticky inflation. Notably, the moderation in core CPI is slower (3.3% YoY in September) than that for headline CPI (2.4% YoY). Between the threat of more tariffs, more stringent immigration rules and tax cuts, it does seem likely that inflation is more likely to rise / as opposed to fall. The timing and magnitude of these measures will matter. However, if we take a medium-term outlook, inflation expectations should be higher. The market has priced this in to a certain extent with 10Y break-evens now close to 2.36% (some 30bps higher than the low registered in September). As long as the growth outlook does not deteriorate, there would be no conflict in Fed policy (firm growth and elevated inflation leads to less Fed cuts). Duration fear is still particularly acute with US Treasuries still under selling pressure. Some stresses are also materialising as implied 10Y real yields cross 2%.  
 

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 


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