USD Rates: CPI relief but sticky inflation worries linger
Fed could keep dovish stance.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow14 Nov 2024
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Wednesday’s CPI release came out in line with consensus expectations (headline: 0.2% MoM, core: 0.3% MoM), offering some relief for front-end US Treasuries. We are not convinced that the report will quell longer-term inflation worries. Notably, core services ex housing (super core) inflation has been running above 0.3% MoM for three consecutive months suggesting that there is some stickiness in prices. In any case, the disinflation in the shelter component also appears to have largely stalled. The only constraint on higher prices would be contained goods inflation thus far. Accordingly, it may be difficult for US CPI to drop much below 2.5% on a sustainable basis. Moreover, against the backdrop of likely tariffs, tax cuts and more stringent immigration rules, the outlook for inflation remains skewed to the upside over the medium term. Longer-term USD rates (10Y and 30Y) would trade relatively buoyant as long as this narrative is in play.

The Fed does get one more set of NFP and CPI prints in early December before the next FOMC meeting (outcome due 19 December 3am SGT). Assuming that data does not materially change, we think that the Fed will deliver one final cut for the year, taking the Fed funds rate to 4.50%. The Fed funds rate would still be in restrictive territory at that point even if the neutral rate is probably not as low as the 2.9% indicated in September’s dotplot. Moreover, we doubt that the Fed would pre-empt what Trump would do before those measures get officially announced. Accordingly, the earliest that the Fed would react to Trump’s new policies would probably be at the March FOMC meeting. This suggests that the Fed would likely keep a dovish stance in December, while caveating that the inflation outlook is highly uncertain. Short-term USD rates have already shifted hawkish, pricing in a terminal rate of around 4% by end-2025.
 

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 


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