Diminished Fed cut expectations powers USD
USD gains reaching 2016 post-election magnitude.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang15 Nov 2024
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The USD has climbed for a fifth consecutive day, with the DXY making short-lived forays above 107 yesterday.  Further impetus for the USD rally has come from Fed Chair Powell overnight, who said that there is no need to be in a hurry to cut rates based on the strength of the US economy. Market swung to pricing in just a 60% chance of a rate cut in Dec, compared to about 80% mid-week. Still, it is worth noting that the DXY climbed only 6.4% from trough to peak back during the 2016 Trump election win. DXY gain from the pre-election trough is close to 6.3% now and this has happened in a far shorter period than in 2016. The Trump trade for the USD could be reaching its limit, without an actual policy change.

Amid trade tensions, the US Treasury’s report of countries on the monitoring list for currency manipulation released yesterday may take on more significance. No country is found to have manipulated the exchange rate, though Korea is added to the watchlist that includes Japan, Taiwan, China, Vietnam, and Singapore. Importantly, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are all facing extended domestic currency weakness, and they are selling foreign currencies instead of buying them. Thus, all three North Asian economies are not currency manipulators so long as they working to strengthen their currencies. Singapore is the only Asian country with large foreign currency purchases as a proportion of GDP, but it has a bilateral trade deficit with the US and does not meet the full criteria. Only China had been named as a currency manipulator in Aug 2019 when USD/CNY rose above 7 due to Trump-led trade tensions, but this was subsequently dropped after a bilateral trade deal.

USD/JPY is rising towards 157 and is close to levels that had triggered market intervention in April-May. While risks of intervention are present, broad weakness against the USD highlights that current JPY weakness is not an isolated development, and it may thus be less concerning for Japanese authorities.  Meanwhile, Japan reported Q3 growth of 0.9% annualised, which was marginally better than expectations. Markets are expecting around a 50% chance of a BOJ rate hike in Dec, with JPY weakness being a consideration for the BOJ.

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]




Quote of the Day
“Don’t watch the clock; do what it does. Keep going.”
     Sam Levenson

November 15 in history
The United Nations designated 15 November 2022 as The Day of Eight Billion, as the approximate day the world population reached eight billion people.






 

Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]


 

 
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