South Korea's 10Y KTB yield only rose by 6bps on the first day after the US election and then retreated by 16bps to 3.00% as of yesterday. However, a further drift higher is likely is likely in our view. The Bank of Korea (BOK) will delay its next rate cut to 1Q25 amid a weakening won, which breached the 1400 level for the first time since October 2022. The delayed cut will likely ease spread compression against UST yields. Technically, we see the -140bps KTB-UST spread as a key support level across tenors, the level last seen in 2Q24. When the BOK starts cutting rates in 2025, short-end rates will fall and spread compression will return. In contrast, long-KTB yields could rise in tandem with uplifting UST yields. The higher debt-to-GDP ratio and 27% YoY increase in KTB supply per the government budget will also lift KTB yields. Overall, these dynamics point to a steepening curve.
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